Vegas nfl win totals9/2/2023 Or perhaps it’s a phantom edge that never really existed in the first place. I ran this finding by professional bettor Seth Burn, and he pointed out that half-point win totals with the under favored don’t appear to exist currently, so perhaps the edge has already been squeezed out of the market. Additionally, perhaps there hasn’t been a widespread interest in surveying historical odds and win predictions, so bettors may not be particularly aware of the lack of calibration of the closing lines. So why is there a systematic undervaluing of teams with half-point win predictions? One possible explanation might be that the public isn’t exactly sure how to value them half-point totals aren’t particularly intuitive to bet. Put in a way more familiar to gamblers: If you bet $100 on each of the 110 half-point overs in the sample with positive money lines, you’d come out ahead $330. And if you were to bet any of the half-point totals where the under is favored (indicated by a money line that is positive), you would actually come ahead, beating the house by 3 percentage points. But blindly betting the over on half-point totals from 5.5 to 8.5 wins since 2003 is nearly a push, with the house netting just a percentage point edge. Vegas typically wants a healthy margin on its action - the vigorish on win totals averages about 30 percent. Surprisingly, there appears to be an edge. Money-line data is only available for a subset of the years for which we have win totals, but using a curated data set covering 2003 through 2018 provided by FiveThirtyEight contributor Greg Guglielmo, I calculated the implied probability that a team would hit the over for each half-win total below nine wins and compared it to the actual win percentage of those NFL teams. Half-win totals from 8.5 on down seem to be very solid bets to hit the over, even when accounting for the vigorish, or house margin. But as the NFL season gets started Thursday, there’s some promise for gamblers in betting on projected team win totals. Also, these wagers do not include victories from the postseason.Vegas is notoriously hard to beat. For "Under" bettors, the Cardinals would have to finish 8-9 or worse for the regular season.īettors should make a note that most operators do not pay out these futures wagers until the end of the regular season when teams complete their 17-game schedule. In the above example, bettors taking the "Over" on the Arizona Cardinals would need the team to finish with at least nine victories or a record of likely 9-8 or better. Oddsmakers set a number prior to the start of a regular season for every team and bettors can wager on "Over" or "Under" for the projections. Win Totals are very popular and also very simple to understand. Houston Texans Over 5.5 (-110) Under 5.5 (-110) HOW TO READ THE NFL WIN TOTALS ODDS MARKET New Orleans Saints opened at 7.5 wins -120 over and moved to 8 wins (Mar 30). Miami Dolphins opened at 8.5 wins -130 over and moved to 9 wins (Mar 30). Las Vegas Raiders opened at 8 wins -125 over and were bet up to 8.5 wins (Mar 30). Las Vegas Raiders Over 7.5 (+120) Under 7.5 (-140) Chicago Bears opened at 7.5 wins and were bet down to 7 wins (Mar 30).
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